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Abstract

Pavement performance prediction is a critical component of pavement management systems, serving as an essential basis and prerequisite for decision-making in asphalt pavement maintenance. This paper introduces the relevant theories of Gamma and Markov stochastic processes to construct asphalt pavement performance prediction models and address uncertainties related to pavement degradation. The results show that stochastic process models are effective in predicting pavement performance degradation and service life. Matlab programming was used to predict asphalt pavement performance and lifespan, yielding pavement degradation curves that significantly improve prediction accuracy and reliability. Finally, taking a test road section in Hebei Province as an example, a comparative analysis of the Gamma and Markov process prediction models was conducted. The analysis demonstrated the practicality and superiority of the Gamma process-based asphalt pavement performance prediction model, offering new insights for future predictions of asphalt pavement performance.

Publication Date

5-11-2023

DOI

10.14048/j.issn.1671-2579.2023.02.011

First Page

64

Last Page

69

Submission Date

March 2025

Reference

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