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Corresponding Author

冯学茂，男，博士.E-mail：[email protected]

Abstract

This paper aims to deeply study the influence of different rainfall patterns on soil slope stability and predict slope failure probability. Firstly, based on the unsaturated fluid-solid coupling theory, five rainfall pattern schemes of uniform, increasing, decreasing, convex peak and concave peak patterns were developed, and the variations of the groundwater level, saturation, horizontal displacement and stability factor of soil slopes under different rainfall patterns were discussed. Then, the orthogonal test was designed to perform the sensitivity analysis of slope stability, and sensitive factors were determined through range analysis. Finally, the sensitive factors were selected as random variables, and the failure probability and reliability probability under different rainfall patterns were calculated by combining the Monte Carlo method and neural network prediction model. The results show that during heavy rainfall, the unsaturated seepage field, displacement field and stability of soil slopes under different rainfall patterns show a complex non-uniform spatiotemporal distribution. The variation process of the safety factor is jointly affected by rainfall intensity, duration and rainfall patterns. Emphasis should be placed on considering the rainfall pattern response process of slope instability induced by rainfall. The effects of various factors on slope stability from strong to weak levels are the effective internal friction angle, effective cohesion, Young’s modulus and Poisson ’s ratio. The increasing pattern obviously reduces the slope stability, and has the largest failure frequency (16.529%), the convex peak, concave peak and uniform patterns have sequentially attenuating failure frequency, and the decreasing pattern has the smallest failure frequency (3.624%). The research results can provide certain reference for the stability prevention and safety early warning of soil slopes under different rainfall patterns.

Publication Date

10-29-2026

DOI

10.14048/j.issn.1671-2579.2026.05.001

First Page

1

Last Page

9

Submission Date

October 2026

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